NFL Week 3 picks: Tom Brady takes down Aaron Rodgers, Bills thrash Dolphins, Broncos shock 49ers

I used to be going to start out issues off right here by making enjoyable of the Browns for his or her large choke job towards the Jets on Sunday, however then I remembered I had an equally large choke job in Week 2: I went 5-11 towards the unfold. No, I did not blow a 30-17 lead with 90 seconds left to play just like the Browns did, however going 5-11 is basically the identical factor. 

I blame that dumb elf that the Browns put at midfield for his or her sport. That factor has cursed the group and my picks. In case you’ve ever seen “The Ring,” the identical factor occurs while you have a look at Brownie the elf, besides you do not die, you simply get your picks fallacious. 

The excellent news for me is that I do not imagine in elves or curses or the colour brown, so I needs to be simply effective making my picks this week. Though I went 5-11 ATS, I went 9-7 straight-up, so the week wasn’t a complete loss. Talking of the picks, let’s get to them.

Truly, earlier than we get to the picks, this is a fast reminder that you would be able to try the weekly picks from each NFL skilled by clicking right here. I get 2.3 cents each time somebody clicks by means of on that hyperlink, so ensure that to click on early and infrequently. Truly, that is not true, I believe the cash really simply goes to the finances CBS has allotted for Will Brinson’s hair care. 

Talking of Brinson, he is the host of the Decide Six Podcast, and simply in case I have never made it clear over the previous two weeks, I will be becoming a member of him three days per week on the podcast — Monday, Wednesday and Friday — for the remainder of the NFL season. Regardless that I am solely on three days per week, there is a new episode each single day from Monday by means of Friday and you need to attempt to pay attention as typically as doable (You’ll be able to take heed to Tuesday’s episode under and click on right here to test it out and subscribe). 

Alright, let’s get to the picks. 

NFL Week 3 picks

Pittsburgh (1-1) at Cleveland (1-1)

8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime)

Newest Odds:

Cleveland Browns

If I’ve observed one factor concerning the Steelers this season, it is that they mainly present up each week with no offensive sport plan after which make it up as they go alongside. Not surprisingly, this hasn’t been understanding properly for them to date and I believe persons are beginning to discover. I imply, we have barely performed two weeks and gamers are already beginning to complain concerning the play-calling of offensive coordinator Matt Canada. 

I have never learn opinions that dangerous since “The Emoji Film” got here out. On the charge he is going, Matt Canada could be teaching in Canada by the tip of the season. You realize issues are going badly when a retailer is utilizing your identify to attempt to get followers drunk. 

I am going to have a six-pack of the Dragon’s Milk please. 

The one factor about this sport is that I do not know which group goes to bounce again higher following their loss in Week 2. The Steelers misplaced by three to the Patriots thanks largely to the truth that their offense could not transfer the ball and the Browns blew a 30-17 lead over the ultimate 90 seconds, which I suppose should not even have shocked me in any respect since no NFL group is healthier than the Browns at discovering unbelievable methods to lose. 

The Browns had the type of emotional loss that may result in a letdown the next week and I believe we would see that on this sport. That being stated, even when the Browns have a letdown, the Steelers offense is not adequate to benefit from it. By means of two weeks, the Browns and Steelers have every performed two video games and all 4 of these sport have been determined by three factors or much less, so clearly, I cannot be predicting a blowout, however I can be predicting an upset. 

The decide: Steelers 16-13 over Browns. 

Buffalo (2-0) at Miami (2-0)

1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Newest Odds:

Buffalo Payments

I do not know the way it occurred, however this sport is one way or the other the one one on the schedule this week that may function two undefeated groups enjoying towards one another. I am not often one to inform folks what to do with their lives, however in case you have plans with somebody at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, you need to positively cancel these plans so you may watch this sport. Properly, until you are performing open coronary heart surgical procedure on a cat or choosing up your toddler at a party or taking your grandma to play BINGO. 

If these are your plans, please do not cancel these. I might really feel horrible if grandma missed BINGO since you listened to some man who went 5-11 ATS along with his picks final week. To be trustworthy, I most likely might have made more cash enjoying BINGO in Week 2 than choosing video games. 

Anyway, I have been watching the Dolphins play for 2 weeks now and I nonetheless do not know what to make of them. I do suppose that they are positively good, however I am simply unsure how good. Positive, they’ve scored eight touchdowns in simply two video games, however half of these got here in only one quarter. They scored 4 touchdowns towards Baltimore within the fourth quarter on Sunday, however they’ve solely scored a complete of 4 of their seven different quarters. 

They beat a Ravens group that had a nasty protection and a Patriots group that had a nasty offense, so what is going on to occur once they play a Payments group that is not dangerous at both of these issues? It is most likely not going to finish properly for the Dolphins. 

The opposite downside for the Dolphin is that they all the time appear to wrestle towards Josh Allen. The Payments have received seven straight video games on this rivalry and people seven wins have come by a median of 19.3 factors per sport. Josh Allen has thrown a number of landing passes in each sport he is ever performed towards the Dolphins, which positively is not excellent news for the Dolphins. Some quarterbacks simply excel towards sure groups. We have seen Aaron Rodgers dominate the Bears, Ben Roethlisberger dominate the Browns and Tom Brady dominate the Payments, now we’re seeing Josh Allen dominate the Dolphins and I believe that domination continues on Sunday. 

The decide: Payments 37-27 over Dolphins. 

Inexperienced Bay (1-1) at Tampa Bay (2-0)

4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)

Newest Odds:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Aaron Rodgers spent a part of his offseason in South America, which I am solely mentioning, as a result of getting this sport moved to South America might be Rodgers’ greatest probability at successful this week. If he cannot pull that off, meaning he will must play in Florida and if there’s one factor I find out about Aaron Rodgers, it is that he hates enjoying within the state of Florida. 

Rodgers has performed a complete of eight video games in his profession in Florida and he is gone 3-5 in these video games. Even worse, for the reason that begin of the 2020 season, Rodgers is 0-2 in Florida and he is thrown 4 interceptions in these two video games, which is insane when you think about that he is solely thrown six interception within the 30 video games he is performed exterior of Florida. For these of you who hate math, that is two interceptions per sport in Florida and 0.2 when enjoying exterior of Florida. He’s actually throwing interceptions at a ten occasions greater charge in Florida than he does at every other time. It is not sensible, which I suppose type of is smart, as a result of nothing in Florida is smart. I imply, we’re speaking a few state the place a man is attempting to interrupt the world report for largest assortment of “Titanic” motion pictures. 

And no, that tweet shouldn’t be referring to me. I solely have 19 VHS copies of “Titanic,” which is unquestionably not the world report. 

Anyway, for those who’ve ever been to Florida in September, you’ll have observed that the air is so thick that you simply really feel such as you’re respiratory out of a straw stuffed with maple syrup. You additionally sweat greater than… You realize what, I am going to simply let Gronk clarify how a lot you sweat. 

Additionally, let’s not neglect about Tom Brady’s first coaching camp in Tampa Bay. 

Aaron Rodgers went from enjoying school soccer in California to enjoying skilled soccer in Wisconsin, so he is by no means actually needed to cope with Florida climate and I am beginning to suppose he may really hate it, which might clarify why he is 3-5 within the Sunshine State. Then again, the Buccaneers observe in that climate daily, so I am guessing they’re used to it at this level. 

Between now and Sunday, all you are going to hear about is how this sport is giving us Aaron Rodgers vs. Tom Brady, however the greater matchup is Aaron Rodgers vs. excessive humidity and I am taking excessive humidity. Rodgers is 1-3 all-time towards Brady and I believe he might need a good worse report towards excessive humidity. 

I also needs to word that that is the primary time Rodgers and Brady have confronted one another for the reason that NFC title sport in January 2021. In case you do not keep in mind that sport, it is the one the place Matt LaFleur inexplicably determined to kick a area aim with two minutes left in a sport the place the Packers had been down eight. 

It has been practically two years since that occurred and I nonetheless cannot work out why he tried that area aim. The one factor that is smart for me right here is to take Buccaneers by a area aim. 

The decide: Buccaneers 20-17 over Packers

San Francisco (1-1) at Denver (1-1)

8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

Newest Odds:

Denver Broncos

I do know we’re solely two video games into the season, however I’ve already seen sufficient of the Broncos offense this 12 months to know that Russell Wilson throwing the ball does not actually appear to be working. At any time when Wilson drops again to cross, I’ve observed that considered one of three issues appears to occur: He will get sacked, he throws an incomplete cross or the play is blown useless as a result of the Broncos get referred to as for a delay of sport. 

As you most likely observed, all of these issues are dangerous. If somebody informed me I used to be going to be hit by a bus, shot within the arm or stung by a hive of lethal bees each time I left my home, I might NEVER depart my home. In case you’re questioning what my bizarre situation has to do with something, I believe what I am saying is that the Broncos can keep away from having three dangerous choices by NOT throwing the ball on a regular basis. That’s their model of not leaving the home. 

In Denver’s win over the Texans on Sunday, Javonte Williams averaged FIVE YARDS PER CARRY, however that did not matter as a result of he solely acquired 15 carries within the sport. As an alternative of feeding Javonte, they determined to let Wilson preserve throwing the ball, which isn’t ultimate when your QB is just finishing 45.2% of his passes like Wilson did towards the Texans.  

The irony in all of that is that it is beginning to seem like Pete Carroll might need been proper about all the pieces. He put a robust working sport and nice protection round Wilson in order that he did not have to hold the group and it could be time for the Broncos to steal that concept. As an alternative of going with the “Let Russ Cook dinner” philosophy, the Broncos may need to begin embracing the “Let Russ assist in the kitchen, however do not let him prepare dinner by himself” philosophy. Principally, the Broncos ought to begin working the ball extra and let that open up the cross. 

Though Wilson hasn’t seemed good in any respect this season, if there’s one group he can flip issues round towards, it is the 49ers. Wilson confronted them 21 occasions whereas he was with the Seahawks and in these 21 video games, he went 17-4. 

If Nathaniel Hackett is sensible, he’ll return and watch these 17 wins to know how the Seahawks had been in a position to win with Wilson: 1. They ran the ball. 2. They performed good protection. 3. They Let Russ Cook dinner.

Please word that letting Russ prepare dinner is listed final. 

As for the 49ers, they could be higher with Jimmy Garoppolo beneath middle, however I am unsure that applies once they’re enjoying AFC groups. In Garoppolo’s final 10 begins towards AFC groups, the 49ers are simply 5-5. 

The decide: Broncos 22-19 over 49ers

Dallas (1-1) at N.Y. Giants (2-0)

8:15 p.m. ET, Monday (ESPN)

Newest Odds:

New York Giants

I do not need to say that this may go down as the best Monday evening sport of all-time, however I am beginning to suppose it could be doable. It is the showdown of all showdowns: We now have a quarterback who has by no means misplaced a begin in his profession (Cooper Rush) going up towards a Giants group that is undefeated on the season. 

This sport is the immovable power towards the immovable power and I”m saying that as a result of I do not suppose both offense is basically going to maneuver the ball very a lot on Monday evening. The Cowboys have among the best defenses within the NFL and so they’ve proven that over the previous two weeks by holding each the Buccaneers and Bengals to beneath 20 factors. The Cowboys offense cannot rating, however they needn’t, as a result of their protection is so good. 

As for the Giants, though they’re 2-0, they have not precisely been lighting up the scoreboard of their wins. The Giants are averaging simply 20 factors per sport by means of two weeks and it is arduous to ascertain them topping that quantity since this may seemingly be the perfect protection that they’ve confronted but. 

I really feel like this sport goes to return right down to Saquon Barkley. In Week 1, a giant cause the Cowboys misplaced is as a result of they forgot find out how to deal with anytime Leonard Fournette touched the ball. The Buccaneers working again averaged 6.05 yards per carry towards the Cowboys and if Barkley can get wherever close to that quantity, it should be a protracted evening for Dallas. 

One thing has to offer on Monday evening: Both Cooper Rush goes to lose his first profession sport (he is 2-0) or the Giants are going to lose their first sport of the season, and I am unable to imagine I am going to do that, however I am taking the Giants regardless that they’ve misplaced six straight Monday evening video games and 9 of their previous 10 to the Cowboys. 

The decide: Giants 16-13 over Cowboys

NFL Week 3 picks: All the remaining

Texans 19-16 over Bears
Raiders 24-17 over Titans
Chiefs 31-20 over Colts
Eagles 30-16 over Commanders
Vikings 27-24 over Lions
Ravens 27-17 over Patriots
Bengals 34-24 over Jets
Rams 27-20 over Cardinals
Saints 20-16 over Panthers
Seahawks 23-20 over Falcons
Chargers 30-20 over Jaguars 
IF JUSTIN HERBERT DOESN’T PLAY: Jaguars 23-20 over Chargers

Final Week

Finest decide: Final week, I predicted that Tom Brady would lastly beat the Saints and guess what occurred? Tom Brady lastly beat the Saints in an everyday season sport for the primary time as a member of the Buccaneers. Now, did I do know that Jameis Winston was going to fully soften down by throwing three interceptions within the fourth quarter? In fact I did. Anytime Winston performs, there is a 70% probability he will soften down sooner or later and there is a 50% probability that meltdown goes to return within the fourth quarter. 

Brady additionally had a meltdown, however it did not occur on the sector, it occurred on the sideline and the one sufferer was an harmless pill. 

Brady has now damaged a pill in two straight video games the place Tampa Bay was enjoying the Saints, which I imagine is the NFL report for many consecutive video games smashing a pill towards one group. 

Worst decide: For some cause, I picked the Vikings to beat the Eagles and I should have forgotten that the sport was being performed on a Monday evening as a result of no sane particular person would ever decide Kirk Cousins to win a sport on Monday evening. Going into Week 2, Cousins had the worst successful share in NFL historical past of any quarterback who has began no less than 10 Monday evening video games. He was 2-9, and after throwing three interceptions towards the Eagles, he is now 2-10. Choosing Cousins to win in a Monday evening sport is like choosing a vegetarian to win a meat loaf consuming contest. It is not sensible, so do not do it, however I nonetheless did it. 

Picks File

Straight up in Week 2: 9-7
SU general:18-13-1

In opposition to the unfold in Week 2: 5-11
ATS general: 14-18

Yow will discover John Breech on Fb or Twitter and if he is not doing a kind of issues, he is most likely working towards for the meat loaf contest he plans on getting into subsequent month.